Fixed income

The bond market's reenergized bulls may want to dial down their excitement, because their fortunes hinge on whether an abstract, almost elusive number, is as low as they assume.

U.S. leveraged loans are delivering some of the best returns in the fixed-income market this year, indicating that investors think any impending downturn could be slow to come and not particularly severe.

Schwab Asset Management is seeking to draw investors to its high-yield bond exchange-traded fund with one of the lowest fees in the industry, even as rising rates and default fears rattle the asset class.

In their latest assessment of the bond market outlook, Morgan Stanley strategists are challenging the former head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's view that losses are likely to deepen.

The market for wagers on the outlook for central bank policy shows traders now expect the benchmark rate to peak in September, instead of July.

They are bullish on equities in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea and recommend an overweight position in developed-market government bonds, including long-dated Treasuries

The Treasury's cash balance fell to just $37.4 billion on Tuesday, according to data published Wednesday. That more that reverses the previous day's bounceback.

Traders amped up wagers on a June rate increase to about 40% after Fed Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said the case for a pause next month is not clear.

Fixed-income trading revenue declined 17%, the firm said in a statement Tuesday, leaving Goldman the only major Wall Street bank so far to have posted a drop for that business.

The U.S. 30-year yield rose to the highest level since November, joining the rest of the Treasury market in offering a return of at least 4% after labor-market data.

The bond market faces a bigger threat than recent rate hikes: the notion that rates will stay elevated even after the U.S. central bank's inflation fight is all over.

Investors offloaded $12.6 billion of Treasuries last year, but that figure was dwarfed by a record $121.8 billion purchase of U.S. agency debt, higher-yielding securities.

The yield on the two-year Treasury moved to be as much as 32 basis points higher than the 10-year yield, which slid in the wake of the Fed’s announcement that it was raising its overnight benchmark by 75 basis points.

The evidence of the Fed’s loss of control has multiplied uncomfortably in recent weeks. For its sake and that of both the domestic and global economy, the central bank desperately needs to regain control of the inflation narrative.

It all threatens to add a fresh twist for Treasury investors, who are already grappling with haywire moves and near double-digit losses with few precedents in the modern trading era.

A consensus has formed that the Federal Reserve waited too long to start tightening money. Fed watchers are still disagreeing about another question: Is the central bank tightening too much and too fast now?

US Treasuries extended losses and stock futures remained down as investors considered how a better-than-expected US jobs report might impact the pace of Federal Reserve policy tightening.

Investors are on edge over whether the US central bank’s tighter policies will induce a recession. A chorus of Fed officials has fallen behind calls to keep hiking to counter price pressures.

Concerns that central-bank rate hikes may induce a recession are keeping investors guessing about the outlook for the economy as rising food and energy costs squeeze consumers, and volatility has picked up.

Yields have jumped so much this year, roughly doubling those on 10-year Treasuries, that it recalls past buying opportunities that paid off when the tide turned.