Treasurys

The US 10-year term premium — or the extra return investors demand to own longer-term debt instead of a series of shorter ones — has climbed to near 1%, a level last seen in 2014.

Early signs are emerging that Trump-induced dollar volatility, inflated Treasury yields and fears about the country's debt burden are fueling a gradual reweighting toward the Old Continent.

The alternative-asset manager also sees the risk of a "structurally" weaker dollar as President Donald Trump seeks to reshape global trade. The dollar is about 15% overvalued.

Moody's announced Friday evening it was downgrading the US to Aa1 from Aaa, reinforcing Wall Street's growing worries over the nation's fiscal outlook as Capitol Hill debates even more unfunded tax cuts.

Focus is now on Tuesday's inflation data for any signs of a pickup in price pressures. The report will be the first to show tariff-related costs.

The declines on Thursday pushed two- to 10-year yields higher by at least 10 basis points on the day after President Donald Trump urged people to buy stocks based on the latest trade developments.

With the central bank expected to keep its benchmark rate steady at 4.25%-4.50% on Wednesday, traders will be scrutinizing comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The pace of hiring drove traders to dial back rate-cut bets that had steadily mounted as Trump's trade war unleashed havoc in financial markets and sowed fears of a US recession.

The selling comes after overseas investors made record purchases of US corporate debt in 2024. Official data shows the demand slowing in February.

As President Donald Trump approaches his 100th day in office, he has generated a growing list of unknowns, forcing traders to focus on a broad array of issues beyond just the likely path of interest rates.