Fixed income

A measure of daily yield swings is at its highest in a year as traders position for further losses that could send 10-year yields as high as 4.5% over the next three weeks.

Yields across maturities rose at least four basis points, reaching the highest levels in more than two months, after the monthly auctions of two- and five-year Treasury notes both drew higher-than-anticipated yields.

Buybacks of Treasuries that are infrequently traded relative to its newest, or "on the run," notes and bonds, are intended to support market resilience by creating opportunities for dealers to offload them.

Traders are pricing in roughly 20% odds that the Fed holds rates steady in either November or December.

Five-year notes were the worst performer among Treasury benchmarks, with yields rising by more than 5 basis points, though all rose by at least 4 basis points.

There's been a marked change in trading volume over the past four years at that time as well as a drop in transaction costs that coincide with the growth of passive funds that track index changes.

First-half net trading revenue rose 81% to $4.9 billion from the same period a year earlier at Citadel Securities, and gained 78% to $8.4 billion at Jane Street.

First-half net trading revenue rose 81% to $4.9 billion from the same period a year earlier at Citadel Securities, and gained 78% to $8.4 billion at Jane Street.

Treasuries have returned 1.7% this month through Aug. 28, on pace for a fourth straight monthly gain, according to the Bloomberg US Treasury Total Return Index.

In the run-up to Powell's Jackson Hole speech, Treasuries tumbled across the US curve, with the move led by shorter maturities.

The company is selling bonds in five parts, and the longest portion of the deal, a 40-year note, will yield 1 percentage point above Treasuries.

Spreads for Fannie Mae current coupon mortgage bonds, a proxy for securities being created now, jumped 0.07 percentage point to 1.41 percentage point, on track for the most widening in a day since April.

Wagers on aggressive easing by the Fed had been rising in recent days amid debate over whether the central bank should act when it meets next week.

Yields on policy-sensitive two-year Treasuries slid three basis points on Wednesday, while those on 10-year bonds were up by about the same amount.

Yields across maturities rose by three to five basis points as volumes picked up in midday Monday trading in New York.

Investors are set to start the week scrambling to decide if President Joe Biden's decision to end his reelection campaign and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris increases or decreases Donald Trump's chances of regaining power. 

The resilience of the equity market has been underpinned by optimism the economy has withstood the worst of Fed tightening.

Optimism tied to an ebb in inflation was on full display this week in US government debt, with yields across the curve slumping as the data was seen supporting the case for lower borrowing costs as soon as September.

The U.S. 30-year yield reached the highest level in a month on Monday amid predictions that a Trump presidency would lead to higher inflation.

Traders are now betting that may be enough for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates as soon as September.