Fixed income

Bond traders are bracing for Treasury yields to keep pushing higher after the Fed signaled it's likely to hold interest rates at lofty levels well into next year.

With uncertain outlooks surrounding the economy and interests, investment managers looking for safer fixed-income investments are finding underpriced assets.

Treasuries are also likely to be supported as inflation can keep slowing even if growth does remain relatively healthy. The investment bank is advising its clients buy Treasury five-year notes and 30-year inflation-linked debt.

The strategy of loading up on government bonds this year in a bold bet that would atone for the punishing losses suffered in 2022 is misfiring once again.

The surprisingly resilient US economy, ballooning debt and deficits, and escalating concerns that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates high are driving yields on the longest-dated Treasuries back to the highest levels in over a decade.

The negative return, though not the first this year, signifies that the interest income the assets throw off is more than offset by the price declines associated with rising yields.

The latest offering will get Citadel Securities closer to its long-held ambition to become a primary dealer — a designation the Federal Reserve typically bestows only to firms active across all types of Treasury securities.

The yield on 30-year securities has climbed almost 25 basis points over the past three sessions, returning it to levels last seen in mid-November when inflation was still above 7%, more than double the current rate.

The bump in issuance showcases the rising borrowing needs that contributed to Tuesday's decision by Fitch Ratings to lower the sovereign U.S. credit rating by one level, to AA+.

The mortgage company was able to move a lot closer to its goal to become a $1 trillion servicer with the expiration of the final tender offer and closing of the deal.

Wednesday's announcement will likely also see debt managers hoist regular auction sizes for securities across the yield curve — with potential exceptions or smaller bumps for notes less in demand.

One asset manager recalled the prelude to the global financial crisis and the 2001 dot-com bust, when companies that loaded up on debt when costs were low got hit with a steep bill years later.

The bond market's reenergized bulls may want to dial down their excitement, because their fortunes hinge on whether an abstract, almost elusive number, is as low as they assume.

U.S. leveraged loans are delivering some of the best returns in the fixed-income market this year, indicating that investors think any impending downturn could be slow to come and not particularly severe.

Schwab Asset Management is seeking to draw investors to its high-yield bond exchange-traded fund with one of the lowest fees in the industry, even as rising rates and default fears rattle the asset class.

In their latest assessment of the bond market outlook, Morgan Stanley strategists are challenging the former head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's view that losses are likely to deepen.

The market for wagers on the outlook for central bank policy shows traders now expect the benchmark rate to peak in September, instead of July.

They are bullish on equities in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea and recommend an overweight position in developed-market government bonds, including long-dated Treasuries

The Treasury's cash balance fell to just $37.4 billion on Tuesday, according to data published Wednesday. That more that reverses the previous day's bounceback.

Traders amped up wagers on a June rate increase to about 40% after Fed Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said the case for a pause next month is not clear.