Monetary policy

Employers hired an additional 115,000 workers in April, while unemployment remained unchanged at 4.3%. Despite the positive headline figure, a spike in newly unemployed workers and a rising number of underemployed workers suggests instability under the surface.

The Federal Open Market Committee's April meeting — likely Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's last — is unanimously expected to keep interest rates steady, but questions about energy, inflation and the upcoming transition in leadership still loom.

Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf said bankers and economists are broadly against lowering interest rates now, given uncertainty from the Iran war.

Federal Reserve Gov. Stephen Miran Thursday said that the Iran war and tariffs will not have long-term impacts on inflation, but did say he is reconsidering his rate cut outlook for the year.

A 21.2% spike in the price of gasoline was the biggest contributor to a 0.9% increase in the Consumer Price Index in March, according to a Friday report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The agency said other price increases were largely contained.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is cautiously monitoring consumer sentiment as tensions from the Iran war push energy prices higher, complicating efforts to bring inflation down to the Fed's target.

Two former members of the Federal Open Market Committee said in interviews that they expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates steady amid uncertainty over the ongoing war with Iran and the resulting upward pressure on inflation.

Federal Reserve Gov. Stephen Miran said it is too early to judge how U.S. involvement in the war with Iran will affect inflation and monetary policy.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in a post-FOMC meeting Wednesday, said he intends to stay at his post until a successor has been confirmed, adding that he will remain on the Fed board until a Justice Department investigation into him is concluded.

The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to keep interest rates steady when it concludes its regular meeting tomorrow, but rising uncertainty about inflation in the wake of the Iran war is clouding the monetary policy outlook.

Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook said AI could boost productivity, but warned the transition may raise unemployment and force difficult tradeoffs between inflation and jobs.

In a speech Tuesday, Federal Reserve Gov. Michael Barr said it was possible that artificial intelligence will boost productivity in an undisruptive way. But he said policymakers should also be wary of a financial crash if those gains are not realized or a rapid adoption that could lead to labor displacement.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics issued its delayed January employment report Wednesday morning, showing the economy added 130,000 jobs in January. But the agency also sharply revised its estimates for total jobs created in 2025 to 181,000 from 584,000.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said in a speech Friday that long-term productivity gains brought on by artificial intelligence could compel the central bank to maintain higher rates to keep prices stable.

Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook said in a speech Wednesday night that the central bank's credibility depends on its ability to bring inflation back to its 2% target.

Former Fed Gov. Kevin Warsh is a relatively known quantity to financial markets, but his embrace of President Trump's agenda and the White House's own contentious relationship with the central bank make it hard to know with certainty where — or even whether — he will lead the Fed.

Observers said the Supreme Court likely will allow Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook to remain at her post while she challenges her purported removal by President Donald Trump. But her continued presence would slow, rather than stop, the president's quest for a voting majority on the central bank board.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman warned that labor market conditions could weaken further and said the central bank should avoid signaling a pause in monetary policy.

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin said economic uncertainty should ease in the coming year as businesses gain confidence in sustained demand and adapt to the new policy environment.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said on CNBC that both sides of the central bank's dual mandate show signs of imbalance, with the labor market appearing more vulnerable.