Economic indicators

ABS overall should outperform, but risks remain in specific areas

A strong economy drove mortgage rates higher in the past week but it's still an advantageous market for consumers in some ways, according to Freddie Mac.

A Fannie Mae survey-high 86% of prospective buyers said it was a bad time to buy a home in May.

Mortgage lenders offered more cash-out refinance programs at a time when consumers might be coming to terms with the rate environment.

While the government-sponsored enterprise cut its origination forecast for this year, the Mortgage Bankers Association's updated forecast was unchanged from its October prediction.

High mortgage rates and the lack of inventory for sale pushed the sector into a downturn twice recently - between May and November last year and in May of 2023 - according to First American

Researchers at the government-sponsored enterprise also maintained their outlook for a modest recession but moved anticipated onset to the fourth quarter this year.

The American Bankers Association's credit conditions index remained near historic lows despite a slight uptick in the most recent quarter. Pessimism pervaded the outlook for both business and consumer lending.

A larger share of sellers were optimistic in May, but the percentage of enthusiastic buyers fell, according to Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index.

Economists lowered their projections for the consumer price index as well as the personal consumption expenditures price index for every quarter through the first half of 2024, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey.