Fixed income

Citigroup, Barclays and Morgan Stanley are just a few of the firms joining JPMorgan in what suddenly feels like a rush into direct lending.

Investors are pricing in more than a 50% chance the Fed will lower borrowing costs in March, and expect the central bank's benchmark rate will fall to around 4% by the end of 2024.

Yields dropped across the US curve after data showed job openings fell to the lowest level since March 2021. Concerns about investors being too fast in anticipating policy easing have resurfaced.

But Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco bank, said it's premature to declare victory against inflation and that the central bank isn't contemplating rate cuts at all right now.

A $55 billion auction of five-year bonds saw strong demand, following a soft $54 billion sale of two-year notes. Benchmark 10-year yields dropped to around 4.4%.

The bond market recovery has come amid some bouts of wild back-and-forth swings, yet is gaining ground since the Fed left its benchmark policy rate unchanged earlier this month.

Long-dated Treasury yields had reached the lowest levels in more than a month just a day earlier, attributed to investors and traders positioning for the end of the Fed's historically aggressive tightening cycle.

The Wall Street bank recently shifted its bond recommendation to neutral from underweight — for the first time since June 2020 — though has so far stopped short of an overweight call.

Short-end issuance is being closely watched after the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee on Wednesday recommended the department skew future issuance toward shorter maturities where liquidity and investor demand is stronger.

Everything from housing to mergers and acquisitions are being upended, especially after 30-year US Treasury bond yields this week punched through 5% for the first time since 2007.