Jim Dobbs

Fears of a recession intensified after President Trump unveiled his plan to impose a minimum 10% tariff on all U.S. imports, and the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index tumbled by nearly 10%.

Bankers' surveys of commercial clients have found that corporate decision-makers are less concerned about adverse tariff effects than nervous investors.

The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index is down more than 7% year to date. Analysts blame confusion caused by President Trump's evolving tariff policies and heightened worries about an economic downturn that could hurt banks' credit quality.

Forecasters on an American Bankers Association panel predict continued economic growth this year, though they say President Trump's tariffs have created new inflation and recession risks.

Following a record-setting 2024, only one transaction involving a credit union buying a bank has been announced so far this year. Seller concerns about regulatory approval and pushback from bank industry groups have contributed to the slowdown.

Deal advisors said the Trump administration's tariff threats and the specter of inflation have given some bankers reason to pause on acquisition plans. Momentum could still mount, but uncertainty in Washington is a detriment early in the new year.

Analysts say lenders' shares could rally on deregulation, lighter tax burdens and a resurgence of M&A. Declining interest rates and lower loan losses could further bolster bottom lines and attract investor interest.

Lower borrowing costs, reduced exposure to the urban office sector and flattening vacancy rates could collectively save lenders from beleaguered corners of the commercial real estate market.

Anticipated interest rate cuts could help stressed borrowers, but such a shift in monetary policy may curb lending income.

REV Federal Credit Union in suburban Charleston, South Carolina, plans to acquire First Neighborhood Bank in West Virginia. It marks the 15th deal this year involving a credit union buying a bank, closing in on 2022's record of 16 deals.

Lower interest rates could bolster loan demand, credit quality and securities portfolios. But they could also curb lending profitability faster than they ease deposit costs, crimping net interest margins and eating into near-term profits.

Increased demand from borrowers may hinge on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues cutting interest rates this fall.

A Northwest credit union announced plans this week to buy a community bank, lifting the 2024 total of such deals to 13 and putting the year on track to set a record. The all-time annual high of 16 was set in 2022.

There were 27 bank acquisitions worth $5.45 billion announced in the second quarter as of mid-June. That was more than the $5.2 billion combined value of deals announced over the previous five quarters.

Atlanta Postal Credit Union's bid to acquire Affinity Bank marked the 11th deal overall this year involving a credit union buying a bank, matching the total for all of 2023. Separately, members voted against the merger of two credit unions in Indiana.

West Coast Community Bancorp agreed to acquire 1st Capital Bancorp in an all-stock deal slated to close in the fourth quarter.

Bank stocks are up this year as interest rates have leveled off and there are hopes that pressure on lenders' profits could moderate.

In talks with OCC officials, "it became obvious that we would not gain near-term approval given their recent experience with multifamily and CRE positions," FirstSun CEO Neal Arnold says. The companies announced other revisions to their deal, too.

Consolidation has slowed since the pandemic, but UMB's agreement to buy Heartland Financial — the largest deal in three years — is one of several merger announcements in the past two weeks. Talks among other potential buyers and sellers are said to be picking up.

Should the all-stock transaction close as planned later this year, Wintrust Financial in the Chicago area would gain about $2.7 billion of assets.