Jim Dobbs

Bankers' surveys of commercial clients have found that corporate decision-makers are less concerned about adverse tariff effects than nervous investors.

The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index is down more than 7% year to date. Analysts blame confusion caused by President Trump's evolving tariff policies and heightened worries about an economic downturn that could hurt banks' credit quality.

Forecasters on an American Bankers Association panel predict continued economic growth this year, though they say President Trump's tariffs have created new inflation and recession risks.

Following a record-setting 2024, only one transaction involving a credit union buying a bank has been announced so far this year. Seller concerns about regulatory approval and pushback from bank industry groups have contributed to the slowdown.

Deal advisors said the Trump administration's tariff threats and the specter of inflation have given some bankers reason to pause on acquisition plans. Momentum could still mount, but uncertainty in Washington is a detriment early in the new year.

Analysts say lenders' shares could rally on deregulation, lighter tax burdens and a resurgence of M&A. Declining interest rates and lower loan losses could further bolster bottom lines and attract investor interest.

Lower borrowing costs, reduced exposure to the urban office sector and flattening vacancy rates could collectively save lenders from beleaguered corners of the commercial real estate market.

Anticipated interest rate cuts could help stressed borrowers, but such a shift in monetary policy may curb lending income.

REV Federal Credit Union in suburban Charleston, South Carolina, plans to acquire First Neighborhood Bank in West Virginia. It marks the 15th deal this year involving a credit union buying a bank, closing in on 2022's record of 16 deals.

Lower interest rates could bolster loan demand, credit quality and securities portfolios. But they could also curb lending profitability faster than they ease deposit costs, crimping net interest margins and eating into near-term profits.