Mortgage rates slip but forecasts don't look promising

Mortgage rates fell again this week, even though a hotter-than-expected inflation report dampened hopes that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce short-term rates sooner rather than later.

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 6.74% on March 14, down 14 basis points from 6.88% one week earlier but up 14 basis points from 6.6% for the same time last year, the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported.

Meanwhile, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.16%, compared with 6.22% a week ago and 5.9% a year ago.

However, rates might increase going forward as the benchmark 10-year Treasury was at 4.29% at noon on March 14, up substantially from a close of 4.1% on March 10, the day before the CPI came out.

"Despite the recent dip, mortgage rates remain high as the market contends with the pressure of sticky inflation," Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater said in a press release. "In this environment, there is a good possibility that rates will stay higher for a longer period of time."

Zillow's rate tracker was flat late Thursday morning at 6.46% for the 30-year FRM, down 1 basis point from Wednesday and up 2 basis points from the prior week's average of 6.44%.

"The yield on the 10-year Treasury note — which mortgage rates tend to follow — reflects expectations about future inflation and future economic growth," Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans, said in a Wednesday night statement. "Leading indicators of economic activity showed the services sector is slowing."

For example, the employment data released last Friday found some loosening of the labor market, with wage growth moderating and unemployment inching higher, Divounguy said. 

"At the same time, a less tight housing market points to further moderation in price and rent growth," Divounguy continued, adding that a possible economic slowdown overseas may increase demand for U.S. Treasury notes, driving up the price and cutting the yield.

"Although the Fed's decision to delay any reduction in the Fed Funds Rate has caused mortgage rates to rise slightly, the impact does not seem to phase homebuyers," added David Adamo of Luxury Mortgage. "The buying season is off to a brisk start, even as rates are elevated."

The FOMC is unlikely to act before the latter part of this year based on the CPI report, said Ksenia Potapov, an economist at First American Financial.

"The housing market isn't expecting rate cuts in time for the start of the spring home-buying season, but this spring is still expected to be stronger than last," Potapov said. "However, when the Fed does cut rates, we may see pent-up demand driving an unseasonable uptick in home sales."