Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Aug. 31 that the labor market's stagnation is a grave concern for the Fed. A week later, August nonfarm payrolls printed at just 96k, which Wells Fargo described as "fairly low" quality.

So how could odds not be high that the Fed would announce QE3 with MBS purchases in the mix? Credit Suisse's metric calculated the mortgage market was pricing in around an 85% probability ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) monetary policy decision, while BNP Paribas' measure had it in the high 90s.

Subscribe Now

Access to a full range of industry content, analysis and expert commentary.

30-Day Free Trial

No credit card required. Access coverage of the securitization marketplace, including breaking news updated throughout the day.