Casting a cloud over the CMBS sector for 2012 is an overhang of about $55 billion in CMBS loans that are coming up for refinancing. Industry participants are watching to see how these loans will fare. These mortgages form part of an estimated total of $365 billion in commercial real estate-backed loans coming due in 2012, according to CMBS data provider Trepp.
At issue is the question of whether borrowers will be able to come up with any additional equity they require to refinance loans made during frothier times, considering that commercial real estate properties have seen considerable declines in value over the last few years. Harris Trifon, Deutsche Bank Securities' global head of commercial real estate debt research, expects that some borrowers will be able to come up with the additional equity, while others won't, considering that "It all depends on the state of the world and how commercial real estate is going to fare as a function of that."