Recent prepayment data has highlighted the more aggressive buyout activity in FNMAs relative to FHMLC Golds.
In the October prepayment report, for example, speeds on 2008 and 2007 vintage 6s through 7s increased around 20% from the previous month, while FHMLC Golds were flat to slower on 6.5s and 7s and in line with expectations of a 10% on 6s.
This is expected to change following a policy change related to loan mods under the government's Home Affordable Modification Program that Fannie Mae announced last week that they said could affect the timing for the removal of delinquent loans from a pool.
The GSE said it will now require that a servicer receive both the last trial period payment and all the required documentation before the loan can be removed from an MBS pool. Before this, servicers were able to buyout loans without all the required documentation.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts said they expect buyout related CPRs to be slower for FNMAs compared with FHMLC Golds over the next couple of months.
They also pointed out that speed differences between FNMAs and FHLMC Golds are likely to vary significantly across servicer and vintage.
This is why servicers that have had relatively high buyout related speeds on FNMAs, such as Chase, will likely slow down the most in the short-term, analysts said. This is especially true for 2006-2007 6s and 6.5s.