Approximately $39 billion of CMBS conduit loans out of a projected $66 billion of CMBS are set to mature in 2011, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts said in a research note today.
The 2006 vintage has the largest share of that figure and is likely to account for about one-third of the total.
"In 2011, there will also be a greater percentage of shorter term hotel loans to deal with," the bank analysts said. "So far this year, hotel loans have only accounted for about 5% of the five-year maturing loans."
This is expected to double to 10% next year, analysts wrote. There will also be an increase in the percentage of multifamily loans as the percentage of retail loans that mature is set to dip. Analysts added that another trouble spot for maturing loans are the period IOs, which are scheduled to increase next year.
They noted that nearly 50% of 2010 maturities are paying off. About 9% of the total (or 17% of the paid off loans) made their balloon payment but did so after their scheduled maturity. Most of the other half of the loans (47.3%) that hit their maturity in the first eight months of 2010 remains outstanding.
Around 16% of the total that came due has been officially modified and extended, with
another 30% simply facing a balloon default. The rest of the maturing loans, 1.4%, have been liquidated at a loss of more than 3%.
"One of the often mentioned concerns facing both the CMBS market and the commercial real estate market overall, in the current environment, is the looming wall of mortgages that need to be refinanced," analysts said. "While the concern has abated somewhat over the past couple of quarters, with commercial mortgage financing becoming more readily available, it has hardly gone away."