Noting new life in the market for CMBS, a survey of industry specialists suggested that issuances could once again reach $100 billion by 2013.
That's still far short of the $250 billion zenith hit in 2007, but the 875 real estate industry leaders polled for the 2011 Emerging Trends forecast said the markets for CMBS have already begun to resuscitate.
According to Stephen Blank, one of the authors of the annual forecast published by the Urban Land Institute (ULI), the executives polled – 600 by survey and 250 in separate interviews – believe that with more "tortuous underwriting" by lenders and with rating agencies looking over issuers' shoulders, "deals are going to be very attractive to the world."
"The game has started," said one respondent. "Teams are in place to begin originations and refinance, and there are plenty of dollars out there to start buying."
The report, which was released at ULI's annual fall conference in Washington on Wednesday, said major banks and investment houses can be expected to lead the way in putting together loan pools. The only regulatory question, it said, is whether issuers and originators will be required to retain a stake in their loans and, if so, how big those positions will have to be.
"The only way to head off a repeat of the recent debacle is to require issuers to retain a percentage of each securitization and force underwriting discipline," another respondent told researchers.