Mortgage rates

Fannie Mae economists toned down their housing and economic outlook in August, predicting fewer home sales and less mortgage origination volume versus July.

Last year the Fed cut its benchmark rate by 50 basis points in September, and went on to lower rates twice more, even as 10-year Treasury yields rose.

Real estate investor sentiment bounced back from two quarters of decline, but lingering fears around tariffs, interest rates still weigh on many buyers' minds

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell by 5 basis points, with the Consumer Price Index showing muted inflation and jobs data still influencing the market.

Approximately 60% of economists surveyed by Wolters Kluwer believe the Federal Open Market Committee will act at its next meeting with a 25 basis point cut.

Employment came in below estimates, which some economists expect could move the bond market in ways that affect loan costs even before the Fed meets next.

The 30-year fixed rate stayed within a narrow range throughout most of July, with forecasts likely to leave the housing market "stuck," said one economist.

Fannie Mae also foresees more home sales than it did in June, but the Mortgage Bankers Association reduced its origination projections for 2025.

For the second consecutive week mortgage rates moved higher, as the likelihood of the Federal Reserve acting diminished after the Consumer Price Index report.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose for the first time in six weeks, driven by Friday's strong jobs report and renewed uncertainty around tariffs.

Growth in conventional originations at U.S. banks came with the unexpectedly rapid rise of 30-year fixed interest rates in 2022, Federal Reserve researchers found.

Refinance apps made up more than 40% of all mortgage applications last week, driving an uptick as consumers seek out cheaper mortgage payments.

Fannie Mae's June housing outlook was down from a month ago, reflecting expectations of a further slowing housing market.

None of the economists surveyed by Wolters Kluwer predict the Fed will cut rates at this week's meeting, few expect one in July and 41% said after September.

While lenders have come out with more products for the spring season, rate lock data finds buyers still hesitant to act because of high mortgage rates.

Even with the four basis-point drop, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage remained at levels last seen in February as the Spring homebuying season reaches its climax.

The product, as well as the housing market, is different today than what it was two decades ago, where some feel it was a cause of the financial crisis.

However, with the market continuing to shift more in favor of homebuyers, home prices should move lower, aiding affordability in the weeks ahead.

Increases in gross domestic product and home sales expectations compared with April are the drivers of Fannie Mae's latest mortgage outlook for 2025 and 2026.

Pricing on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage retreated this week as investors digested some economic news, including a GDP contraction in the first quarter.