Inflation

Treasuries climbed across the curve, driving two-year yields down three basis points to 3.51%. Money markets almost fully priced in three Fed reductions by the end of 2025.

Investors are anticipating the annual preliminary benchmark revision of US payrolls data. Further signs of softening could further raise expectations for Fed easing.

The attention will now turn to reports on producer prices and consumer prices, due Wednesday and Thursday, for signals of how quickly the Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs.

Debt markets globally were roiled this week as the yield on the 30-year Treasury rose to almost 5% before easing in the past two sessions.

Yields on two- to five-year notes rose at least two basis points to session highs after the U.S. economy's second-quarter growth rate was revised to 3.3% from 3%, exceeding economist expectations.

In minutes from the Fed's July meeting, officials highlighted the risks of inflation outweighing concerns over the labor market, which investors overlooked.

U.S. consumers probably experienced a slight pickup in underlying inflation in July as retailers gradually raised prices on a variety of items subject to higher import duties.

Officials are balancing food and retail payroll tax and wage inflation risks against mounting jobs losses and a "subdued" economy that could dampen future price pressures.

Two policymakers have suggested they might support a cut at the July meeting, but most others have signaled they want more time to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation.

The recent rally was driven by economic data that reinforced wagers on at least two rate cuts this year, as well as speculation President Donald Trump will name a more dovish successor to Jerome Powell.