Mortgage rates shrink on positive inflation news

After coming very close to 7% last week, the average for the 30-year fixed rate mortgage backed down 18 basis points, as investors reacted to the positive surprise in the Consumer Price Index report, Freddie Mac said.

Its Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the average for the 30-year fixed rate loan at 6.78% as of July 20. That was down from 6.96% last week, the highest point since November. For the same week last year, it averaged 5.54%.

The 15-year FRM reported an even larger decline of 24 basis points, to 6.06% from 6.3%. But it is still well above the 4.75% average of one year ago.

Even though the benchmark 10-year Treasury was up 11 basis points on Thursday morning, the yield fell 35 basis points between its 4.09% high on July 10 and July 19 close of 3.74%.

"As inflation slows, mortgage rates decreased this week," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, in a press release. "Still, the ongoing shortage of previously owned homes for sale has been a detriment to homebuyers looking to take advantage of declining rates."

The Mortgage Bankers Association's Weekly Application Survey, which covers the period ended July 14, yesterday reported a 20 basis point decline in the conforming mortgage rate, pulling back under 7% to 6.89%.

Data from Optimal Blue, a division of Black Knight that is being sold to Constellation Software, reported the 30-year FRM average at 7.02% for July 7. Its most recent available data, for July 19, has the average at 6.74%.

Zillow's rate tracker for the 30-year FRM put it at 6.51% on Thursday morning, up 1 basis point from Wednesday but down 12 basis points from last week's average of 6.63%.

"The latest inflation data eased pressure on bond yields, prompting mortgage rates to tick downward in recent days," Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans, said in a Wednesday statement. "A weaker-than-expected report on June retail sales activity offered some additional support, on hopes that moderating consumer spending will help inflation cool further."

But even with the improvements in the inflation data, the future direction of mortgage rates remains unclear.

"Next week's policy decision from the Federal Reserve is sure to bring more meaningful movements in rates," Divounguy said. "And, more broadly, the improvement on key inflation measures coupled with a resilient labor market suggest recession risk is receding, making subsequent downward mortgage rate moves far from a sure thing."