Stress tests

The Federal Reserve Friday issued a set of proposed changes to its stress testing program for the largest banks that would disclose the central bank's back-end stress testing models, a move that the Fed had long opposed out of fear of making the tests easier for banks to pass.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said in a speech Tuesday that the central bank would unveil proposed revisions to its stress testing regime "in the next week or so."

In a unanimous vote, the Board of Governors moved to lower Morgan Stanley's stress capital buffer requirement to 4.3%, down from a preliminary 5.1% based on this year's stress test results.

After passing the Federal Reserve's stress tests with high marks, large banks announced dividend increases. In some cases, they also said the Fed had conceded that certain prior calculations needed to be revised.

The largest U.S. banks took less of a capital hit under the Federal Reserve's hypothetical stress scenario than they did last year, but averaging the two sets of results could impact next year's regulatory requirements.

The Federal Reserve attributes the uptick in simulated losses in this year's stress test examination to heightened risks on bank balance sheets and higher expense levels. Credit cards and corporate lending were top areas of concern for the central bank.

The Federal Reserve vice chair for supervision says the failure of Silicon Valley Bank showed the shortcomings of the current stress testing regime.

On a combined basis, the GSEs performed better under this year's scenario than they did in 2021, but the Federal Housing Finance Agency said changes were still needed.

This year’s stress-test results show large banks have more than enough capital to deal with a major economic crisis, but their capital requirements will likely go up anyway. That has some observers and industry officials concerned credit will tighten even as the economy teeters on the edge of recession.

This year’s stress tests examined 23 banks including JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, with the remainder of the firms on an “every other year” test cycle. The capital requirements for those remaining firms are unchanged from last year.