Mortgage rates rise as FOMC inaction adds to uncertainty

Mortgage rates rose for the second consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed up one basis point on average, as yesterday's Federal Open Market Committee decision was expected by the majority of the marketplace.

The move to leave rates unchanged was likely priced into mortgage rates and the benchmarks it uses beforehand. Mortgage pricing is based in part on the 10-year Treasury, as well as spreads with mortgage-backed securities. 

How mortgage rates changed this week

The 30-year FRM averaged 6.1% as of Jan. 29, up slightly from last week when it was 6.09%, the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey said. A year ago at this time, it averaged 6.95%.

But, also for the second straight week, the increase in the 15-year FRM average outpaced the longer-term product. This week, it is at 5.49%, up 5 basis points from last week when it averaged 5.44%. For the same week in 2025, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.12%.

"Mortgage rates remain near their lowest levels in three years, which is encouraging for potential homebuyers who have waited to enter the market for some time," Sam Khater, Freddie Mac chief economist, said in a press release. "Lower rates, combined with strong income growth, have led to a steady increase in purchase applications compared to last year."

On Wednesday, the 10-year yield closed 3 basis points higher on the day at 4.25%, similar to where it was on Jan.22. Thursday morning, as of 11 a.m., it was at 4.24%.

Lender Price data posted on the National Mortgage News website showed the 30-year FRM at 6.09%, relatively unchanged on the day. This was improved from last week's 6.4%. 

How the Fed decision impacted mortgage rates

Statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggest the current level of rates has not significantly restricted the economy, said Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow Home Loans, in a Wednesday afternoon comment.

"While market probability for 'no change' increased for the next subsequent meetings, the 10-year treasury yield, which mortgage rates can follow, was little changed," Ng said.

Expecting 2026 to be a year of small wins for housing, Ng added that if Pres. Trump's plan for the agencies to purchase $200 billion in MBS "is implemented as expected, it could move mortgage rates directly, lower than Zillow's original forecasts."

Inflation rates have not dropped sufficiently for the FOMC to act and talk of new tariffs from Pres. Trump is not helping the situation, said Melissa Cohn, regional vice president at William Raveis Mortgage, in a post-meeting comment.

"With so much going on in Washington and the world, it will be interesting to see where rates go in 2026," said Cohn. "We hope that 2026 will be the year that the real estate market rebounds and lower interest rates are key to that happening."

Fitch Ratings Senior Director Eric Orenstein was pessimistic about what this Fed decision means for housing.

"The Fed's holding pattern clouds the picture for mortgage rates in 2026," Orenstein said in a statement. "After steadily declining for the last eight months, it's unclear if and when they will pass the critical 6% mark."

The FOMC has extended its higher-for-longer philosophy in order to counter inflation, said Tom Egan, chief financial officer at Hometap.

"Mortgage rates remain elevated, affordability is strained and buyers and sellers may remain on the sidelines," Egan said.

Hometap was surprised by December's spike in existing home sales. "Buyers are resilient and many sellers are considering their options for the year ahead, looking to capitalize on their equity gains," Egan added.