Mortgage rates dip back below 3% after previous week’s surge

A week after surging above 3% for the first time since June, mortgage rates retreated back under that threshold.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.99% for the seven days ending Oct. 7, according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. A week ago, the average shot up to 3.01% after spending the majority of the summer close to 2.9%. The latest rate still came in above the figure from this time a year ago when the 30-year average sat at 2.87%.

“Mortgage rates continue to hover at around 3% again this week due to rising economic and financial market uncertainties,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in a press statement.

Despite the drop, analysts don’t see any trends to indicate rates will consistently stay below 3% going forward.

“While the steady upward momentum that rates have experienced over the past couple weeks recently leveled off, markets remain cautious as a series of potentially market-moving developments loom on the immediate horizon,” said Zillow economist Matthew Speakman in a blog post.

Those developments include a more promising outlook for personal expenditures following a better-than-expected August consumer-spending report and anticipated guidance from the Federal Reserve later this year regarding its taper of asset and securities purchases — originally enacted to counteract the economic shock of the coronavirus. The rate of new COVID-19 cases also started declining in mid September after steadily increasing over the summer.

Investors await the next release of U.S. employment data scheduled for Friday. “A stronger-than-expected reading would arm the Federal Reserve with more ammunition to justify a tightening of monetary policy later this year and likely press mortgage rates higher,” said Speakman.

In addition to the decrease in the 30-year average, the 15-year fixed-rate also dropped week-over-week, falling five basis points to 2.23% from 2.28%. One year ago, the 15-year average stood at 2.37%.

The 5-year Treasury-indexed adjustable-rate, though, jumped four basis points to 2.52% compared to 2.48% the previous week. But the average came in lower than the same week last year when it hit 2.89%.

For borrowers, the current outlook could spell a more challenging road ahead, particularly for those looking to purchase, according to Khater. The torrid pace of housing prices and supply issues both continue to impact the market.

“Unfortunately, with the expectation that both mortgage rates and home prices will continue to rise, competition remains high and housing affordability is declining,” he said.