One-by-one various market players have come forward in recent weeks with predictions of slowing - in some cases negative - home price appreciation (HPA) in coming quarters. While actual HPA information varies depending on the source, and typically lags several months behind, both anecdotal and futures market information back up a prediction of slowing ahead. For example, the one-year futures-implied HPA on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Composite Index has fallen in recent weeks to -4% HPA from 0%.

And while the degree to which subprime borrowers - who are expected to be hit the hardest from a slowing rate of home price growth - will fall behind on their payments remains a matter of speculation, early indications are showing later vintage deal performance to fall behind the rosy payment histories of loans in recent years.

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