Lower mortgage rates motivating consumers

The latest downturn in mortgage rates is a happy holiday gift for originators, as indicators are that the push below 7% has brought consumers back into the market.

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week of Dec. 21 reported a large 28 basis point drop in the 30-year fixed rate loan to 6.67% from 6.95% in the prior seven-day period. This is the lowest point for the 30-year since June 22. For the same time period last year, this product was at 6.27%.

The 15-year fixed rate mortgage had a larger drop of 43 basis points to 5.95% from 6.38% during the week of Dec. 14, but this number was up from 5.69% one year ago. It marks the first time rates for the 15-year FRM have dropped 5% since the week of May 25.

These recent declines in FRMs are a "welcome trend" for a difficult mortgage market, said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist.

"Lower rates are bringing potential homebuyers who were previously waiting on the sidelines back into the market and builders already are starting to feel the positive effects," Khater said in a press release. "A rise in homebuilder confidence, followed by new home construction reaching its highest level since May, signals a response to meet heightened demand as current inventory remains low."

The Freddie Mac survey shows mortgage rates fell faster than the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield over the past week. The 10-year Treasury dropped 16 basis points, to 3.87% from 4.03%, between the time of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Dec. 13 and noon on Dec. 21.

As of noon on Thursday, Zillow's rate tracker had the 30-year FRM at 6.28%, a gain of 6 basis points since Wednesday but down 13 basis points from the previous week's average rate of 6.41%.

Optimal Blue's product and pricing engine reported the average for the 30-year FRM at 6.898% on Dec. 13. That number moved down to 6.675% seven days later.

And in recent days, signs have emerged that consumers are moving back into the market, Redfin confirmed in a new report.

"The last week of economic news and data makes it more likely than not that mortgage rates have peaked," said Redfin Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao, in a press release. "Buyers will return from the holidays with more homes to choose from, and they should still see rates in the mid-6% range. But because the Fed is erring on the side of caution, there's still a chance that rates could go back up."

The company provided anecdotal evidence of the recent uptick in activity. "I'm seeing an uptick in applications, an uptick in clients who had disappeared reaching back out, and an uptick in refinances," said Mona Edick, a manager at Bay Equity Home Loans, which Redfin owns.