Fitch Ratings started a quarterly report that details its U.S. home price projections.
The new publication reflects the rating agency's long-term perspective on U.S. home price movements that are based on its sustainable home price model.
The first report has projections as of 2Q11. The rating agency predicts prices to dip an added 13% nationally in real terms.
According to Fitch, the housing market is still under stress from factors, including unemployment, existing inventory and more stringent underwriting standards. The correction is probably going to happen slowly. It expects much of the drop to come from inflation eroding nominal values. As of 2Q11, prices dipped off their peak by 38% in real terms.
Each quarter the rating agency will offer an updated version of its estimates and market views with the release of the Case Shiller indices.
It will also provide a more detailed perspective on individual states or regions based on considerable or unexpected price changes, evolving economies, or the national housing scene.
The initial quarterly report looks at Michigan, a state that Fitch now views as undervalued. The rating agency will offer projections at the metropolitan statistical area level by 1Q12.
