Mortgage rates

The economic situation is more like what happened during the mid-'80s thrift crisis than the 2008 downturn, said Chief Economist Doug Duncan.

Both 30- and 15-year averages dropped for the first time in six weeks, as investors flocked to safety of 10-year Treasuries.

Buyer affordability has decreased by almost 22% in the past year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Persistent inflation concerns drove the 30-year average up 41 basis points this month.

But with rates turning back up this past week, activity could fall in February, Black Knight Optimal Blue said.

Since breaking above 7% in November, the 30-year fixed is now down nearly a full percentage point, Freddie Mac said.

But several recent news developments are creating the perception that the risk of a recession is on the wane and that could end the downward pressure on rates.

The 30-year fixed rate surged 15 basis points from a week earlier but ends 2022 at more than twice its mark from a year ago.

This year's rapid rise in mortgage rates is cooling the U.S. housing market, leading to sales declines and pressure on home prices. Other measures put the figures above 6%.

Both the 30- and 15-year averages are now more than 3 percentage points higher from their levels of one year ago.

Comments from Federal Reserve officials in Jackson Hole last week have markets bracing for further tightening of monetary policy in the near term.

Better-than-expected economic data helped lead to the steep acceleration of the 30-year average, while the 15-year also shot up.

Following their largest drop in over a decade one week ago, averages rapidly swung upward as recession talk receded.

Recent remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Powell suggest more upward movement is ahead.

The latest Federal Reserve move to combat inflation led to a weekly increase of more than 50 basis points.

Rising interest rates eliminated any refinance incentive for 30% of the loans analyzed by Standard & Poor's, marking a turnaround from the start of the year when prepay speeds were expected to increase

A positive employment report, robust consumer spending and Fed comments on inflation counter measures drove rates upward.

The inventory shortage is beginning to ease, while demand is slowing due to high prices and rising mortgage rates.

With anticipated Federal Reserve moves already factored in, inflation and jobs data could play a bigger role in driving movement over the near term.

Averages rose sharply across the board, as investors focus on the central bank's response to ongoing economic and geopolitical developments.