Jim Dobbs

Commercial real estate loans are vulnerable as financial assistance for tenants winds down and might not be fully renewed. Late rent payments could rise, leading lenders to press landlords to pay up.

More consumer and commercial borrowers are paying their loans, increasing the likelihood that charge-offs will be manageable for banks despite the ongoing pandemic.

Community bank earnings are usually easy to understand, but loan deferrals and modifications as well as the complexities of the Paycheck Protection Program are skewing financial statements.

Bankers had asserted in April that they could handle a slump in oil prices tied to the coronavirus pandemic. Continued volatility, combined with declining collateral values and a rise in bankruptcies for exploration companies, is denting their confidence.

As revenue-starved retailers fall further behind on rent payments, landlords' cash flow will be strained, and defaults on commercial real estate loans could rise.

Banks could end up holding many low-rate Paycheck Protection Program loans on their books for two years, and dealing with irate borrowers who failed to meet federal requirements for forgiveness.

Lenders that scrambled to grant forbearance as the coronavirus pandemic took hold are unsure about the extent of potential losses.

By helping borrowers now, banks hope customers can quickly catch up on payments once the coronavirus pandemic ends. If they can’t, interest income will remain low and charge-offs could pile up if the crisis drags on.

Commercial real estate lenders have to consider not only how they’ll weather the COVID-19 downturn, but whether worker and consumer habits have changed for good.

Compliance, risk management and staffing will likely come under added scrutiny as regulators lay out a framework for future fintech-bank mergers.