Long an adjunct of the insurance and reinsurance sectors, the catastrophe bond market appears primed to become a more mainstream allocation alternative in 2012. This shift is prompted by issuers' growing capital needs and the incentive that the risk from natural disasters it mitigates is not correlated with the manmade financial variety. While 2011 new-issuance volume is anticipated to end up just short of last year's numbers, and outstanding cat bond issuance remains about the same, indications point to a strong 2012.

In the preliminary ASR Scorecards database public lead manager rankings for full-year 2011, JPMorgan Securities maintained its No. 1 rank from last year to capture the top spot again this year with a 16% market share and $12.03 billion sold. For the full year 2010, the bank held the top slot with a 15.6% market share $8.36 billion sold.

The passage of the payroll tax holiday extension in December was, in my mind, a watershed moment for the mortgage and MBS markets. For the first time, Congress instituted a tax on mortgage transactions, to be collected by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In this light, the operative question for regulators and policy makers is simple: "What are we trying to accomplish?"

To understand the role private-label mortgage financing, MBS players must first wait and see what the government's next move will be. It is not that securitization is not happening. It is just that all the activity in the market is via the GSEs.

The full implementation of Basel III is still years away, but it is already impacting key areas of the securitization market such as mortgage servicing rights. The impact of its liquidity ratios on market participants will likely be felt as early as this year.

Last year, securitization players found themselves stumbling towards recovery, as new regulations and a weak economy posed one hurdle after another for deal makers.

Casting a cloud over the CMBS sector for 2012 is an overhang of about $55 billion in CMBS loans that are coming up for refinancing. Industry participants are watching to see how these loans will fare. These mortgages form part of an estimated total of $365 billion in commercial real estate-backed loans coming due in 2012, according to CMBS data provider Trepp.

How much higher can a rating agency grade a structured finance deal over its respective sovereign? While a perennial topic in emerging markets, it has not historically been a big issue in Europe.

Structured finance players in Latin America pushed through 2011 with few scars, especially given the turmoil pounding European markets.

The need for private capital to return to mortgage financing is a major discussion point in the future of U.S. housing. REITs are an ideal vehicle for bringing in that private capital. However, before this can occur, a couple of things need to happen, said Calvin Schnure, a mortgage market economist at the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT).

MORTGAGE DATA 30-yr. Fixed 15-yr. Fixed 5-yr Treasury 1-yr Treasury- MBA Refi Home Purchase Rate Mortgage Rate Mortgage Indexed ARMs Indexed ARMs Index Index Week ending 01/12/12 3.89%

2012 2011 2010 ABS (Public + 144A) 10,383.2 4,542.7 2,863.6 ABS (Public + 144A excluding CDOs) 10,202.7 4,542.7 2,863.6 ABS (Public Only) 8,334.8 3,144.7 241.6 ABS (144A Only) 2,048.4 1,397.9 2,622.0 Non-Agency MBS 1,048.3 1,603.1 - Agency MBS - 19,495.5 518.7 CMBS - - -