Treasurys

Traders are pricing in roughly 20% odds that the Fed holds rates steady in either November or December.

Five-year notes were the worst performer among Treasury benchmarks, with yields rising by more than 5 basis points, though all rose by at least 4 basis points.

There's been a marked change in trading volume over the past four years at that time as well as a drop in transaction costs that coincide with the growth of passive funds that track index changes.

Treasuries have returned 1.7% this month through Aug. 28, on pace for a fourth straight monthly gain, according to the Bloomberg US Treasury Total Return Index.

In the run-up to Powell's Jackson Hole speech, Treasuries tumbled across the US curve, with the move led by shorter maturities.

The company is selling bonds in five parts, and the longest portion of the deal, a 40-year note, will yield 1 percentage point above Treasuries.

Spreads for Fannie Mae current coupon mortgage bonds, a proxy for securities being created now, jumped 0.07 percentage point to 1.41 percentage point, on track for the most widening in a day since April.

Wagers on aggressive easing by the Fed had been rising in recent days amid debate over whether the central bank should act when it meets next week.

Yields on policy-sensitive two-year Treasuries slid three basis points on Wednesday, while those on 10-year bonds were up by about the same amount.

Yields across maturities rose by three to five basis points as volumes picked up in midday Monday trading in New York.

Investors are set to start the week scrambling to decide if President Joe Biden's decision to end his reelection campaign and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris increases or decreases Donald Trump's chances of regaining power. 

The resilience of the equity market has been underpinned by optimism the economy has withstood the worst of Fed tightening.

Optimism tied to an ebb in inflation was on full display this week in US government debt, with yields across the curve slumping as the data was seen supporting the case for lower borrowing costs as soon as September.

The U.S. 30-year yield reached the highest level in a month on Monday amid predictions that a Trump presidency would lead to higher inflation.

Traders are now betting that may be enough for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates as soon as September.

The move was led by the two-year yield, which at one point fell nearly 8 basis points below 4.69% — short of last week's low 4.65%.

The $39 billion 10-year note sale was awarded at 4.438%, compared with a yield of 4.458% in pre-auction trading at 1 p.m. New York time, the bidding deadline.

Treasury yields surged across the curve on Friday, while traders — as well as economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. — pushed out their expectations for the Fed's first rate reduction.

The recalibration came amid the best two-day rally for short-end Treasuries since January, following the central bank's latest policy meeting on Wednesday.

Traders have built positions in options linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate targeting a scenario where officials keep rates steady past December's policy meeting.