Fixed income

The Treasury Department is expected on Wednesday to follow through on its November guidance of a third round of increases in its so-called quarterly refunding auctions of notes and bonds.

Truist sold $3.5 billion of bonds in two parts. The longest portion, an 11-year fixed-to-floating rate security, yields 162 basis points above comparable Treasuries.

The year-end yield on the bond, a global anchor for markets and U.S. mortgage rates, is the culmination of a stunning rebound for Treasuries.

The U.S. may be less rate-sensitive than other countries due to its long-term mortgages but could face tighter credit from hard-hit financial institutions.

The riskiest tier of the junk bond market, CCC, has gained nearly 20% year to date on a total return basis, making it the best-performing asset class in the U.S. fixed-income market.

Citigroup, Barclays and Morgan Stanley are just a few of the firms joining JPMorgan in what suddenly feels like a rush into direct lending.

Investors are pricing in more than a 50% chance the Fed will lower borrowing costs in March, and expect the central bank's benchmark rate will fall to around 4% by the end of 2024.

Yields dropped across the US curve after data showed job openings fell to the lowest level since March 2021. Concerns about investors being too fast in anticipating policy easing have resurfaced.

But Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco bank, said it's premature to declare victory against inflation and that the central bank isn't contemplating rate cuts at all right now.

A $55 billion auction of five-year bonds saw strong demand, following a soft $54 billion sale of two-year notes. Benchmark 10-year yields dropped to around 4.4%.