WASHINGTON — The tie vote in the Senate Banking Committee earlier this month on Rohit Chopra’s nomination as Consumer Financial Protection Bureau director made clear the GOP will oppose progressive picks to lead the regulatory agencies. But observers say that opposition may just be a speed bump on the way to Chopra's leading the bureau.
The committee was
While the additional procedural hurdle could delay Chopra’s nomination, industry observers say the Federal Trade Commission member and former CFPB student loan ombudsman's bid to head the consumer watchdog is likely to prevail — though Harris may need to cast the decisive vote.
“He's very likely to be confirmed since confirmation now can occur on a simple majority, with the vice president breaking a tie,” Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, said at a recent virtual conference hosted by the American Bankers Association.
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While Chopra is
The tight path he faces to leading the CFPB has more to do with the agency’s partisan history than with Chopra himself. As the brainchild of Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., the CFPB has been lauded by Democrats for the billions of dollars it has returned to harmed consumers. But Republicans have been opposed to the agency since its conception, arguing it has been unaccountable and overly aggressive in its enforcement actions against financial firms.
“We expected it would be close,” said Ed Mierzwinski, senior director of the federal consumer program at the U.S. Public Interest Research Group. “The Republicans have decided that they're going to stand with Wall Street on this issue. And, quite frankly, they're going to stand with payday lenders and Wall Street on this issue.”
A financial services lobbyist added that most Republicans likely won’t vote to confirm any person nominated by a Democratic president to lead the CFPB.
“Even though he's a progressive, he demonstrated he’s more than capable and more than qualified,” the financial services lobbyist said. “So the reality is, [Republicans] are just going to vote 'no' on anybody. It could have been Gandhi and they would have voted 'no.' "
Ian Katz, a director at Capital Alpha Partners, agreed that "a lot of Republicans either don't think the CFPB is necessary or are skeptical of what it does."
“And certainly they don't like the way the Democrats approach it," Katz said.
Toomey said Chopra was “one of the right-hand men” for the CFPB’s first director, Richard Cordray, who led the agency from 2012 to 2017. The GOP senator argued that Chopra would “restore this regulator to a very harsh anti-business, anti-banking entity.”
But Toomey acknowledged that Republicans would not be able to muster enough opposition to defeat the nomination.
"Even if no Republicans supported his confirmation — and there might well be some support, it won't be many — he'll probably be confirmed,” he said at the ABA conference.
Some observers say it is possible that Republicans like Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Mitt Romney of Utah, could still support Chopra’s nomination once the full Senate takes it up.
“It is definitely possible, whether that's Murkowski or Collins or Romney, it's possible,” the financial services lobbyist said. “Those folks have voted for probably more Biden nominees than any others in the Republican caucus. If they choose one or two to vote ‘no’ on, just to kind of maintain their Republican street cred a little bit, maybe this is an easy one to vote ‘no’ on because it's the CFPB. But I do think it's a real possibility that Chopra could get one or two Republican [votes] on the floor.”
Ed Mills, a policy analyst with Raymond James, said Collins has previously focused on nominees' “qualifications” when determining her support or opposition.
“Her history and her rationale for supporting individuals nominated by both Democrats and Republicans has been that the advice and consent of the Senate is about, is this person qualified?” Mills said. “And when she has been a ‘no’ vote, she believes it comes down to the qualifications. We would have to see her outline a rationale as to why Chopra is not qualified for her to justify her ‘no’ vote.”
Still, Democrats pushing Chopra’s nomination don’t want to lose any members of their party when the full Senate votes. If all Republicans oppose Chopra’s nomination, Chopra needs the support of the full Democratic caucus and then a tie-breaking vote from Harris.
Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., has not yet signaled whether he would support Chopra’s nomination to lead the CFPB, and his vote has been considered crucial in advancing the Biden’s administration’s most progressive nominees. His vote against Neera Tanden to serve as the Office of Management and Budget director ultimately killed her chances of confirmation.
Chopra "has probably not a single vote to spare, you know, for on the Democratic side,” Katz said. “If you're from the Democratic side, they need to make sure that there are no defections, not Joe Manchin, not anybody else. And then you need everybody to show up whenever they call the vote, and you need to make sure that nobody is sick. And then everybody can show up.”
But the “yes” vote from Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., in the Senate Banking Committee signals to some analysts that moderate Democrats are on board with Chopra’s nomination.
“Everyone focuses on Manchin, but she is as important,” Mills said, referring to Sinema. “Every vote is important. But if there was a vote that could have been against, it was her because she is not shy with her connections to corporate America and the banking community and industry.”
Mills added that Manchin may not prioritize the CFPB when he is sounding the alarm on the Biden administration’s nominees.
“If there were more banks headquartered in West Virginia that would have been impacted by this, I'd be concerned,” Mills said. “If Chopra was regulating the coal industry, it wouldn't happen. Is this Manchin's first choice? Maybe, maybe not. But I don't see this as where he necessarily establishes his opposition.”
