The widening in structured finance spreads is not yet a cause for credit concerns, according to a weekly outlook by Standard & Poor’s.
The agency reiterated the point made by many pundits lately: rates are still hovering near historic lows. That, for the time being, will keep refinance risk low. Healthier economic growth, for its part, will continue to buoy real estate and the American consumer.
And even higher rates are not always a damper on performance.
“We have found a positive historic correlation between issuance levels and future loss rates for CMBS,” S&P said.
But the changing interest-rate climate might start weighing on issuance in some asset classes.
While the truncated week of July 1 in the U.S. made it a poor bellwether of activity trends, global structured finance issuance fell below $5 billion following four consecutive weeks above $10 billion, the agency said. While the CMBS and CLO pipelines have about $15 billion worth of deals queuing up, S&P predicted a “short-term slowdown.”