January remittance data has finally left analysts struggling to find new ways to deliver the same old bad news."Credit performance of the ABX indexes is still terrible, in our opinion," Wachovia Securities analysts wrote. "In fact, it is increasingly difficult to find new synonyms for the word 'increase' to describe the direction of nonperforming loans." Wachovia actually called the prices of numerous ABX indexes "beyond terrible." Delinquency rates rose at a steady clip, according to the analysts, with the more seasoned deals displaying smaller delinquency rates in January. According to Wachovia, total losses for the ABX 06-1 index averaged 5.1% for deals with an average of 30 months of seasoning. The ABX 06-2 deals had an estimated 10.1% loss on average for deals with 25-month average seasoning. Deals with an 18-month seasoning netted losses totaling roughly 12.2%, according to the ABX 07-1 index. The pace in 30-day delinquencies continued to surge for the ABX 06-2, ABX 07-1 and ABX 07-2 by 51 bps, 27 bps and 56 bps, according to UBS analysts. The pace of 60-day delinquencies also increased for the ABX 07-1 and ABX 07-2 while the rate of delinquencies dipped down for the 2006 counterparts, UBS wrote.
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