It is unlikely that purchase mortgage origination volume will top $530 billion this year, as the negatives in the economy far outweigh the positives, said market research firm iEmergent.

The company is basing its latest forecast of $528 billion (a cut of over 5% from its previous projections) in purchase loans on increasingly wary customers, the shift forward in purchase patterns caused by the tax credit, a projected rise in interest rates by the end of the year, falling home prices and a slight decrease in average loan size.

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