Rate spike mutes mortgage application activity with one exception

The recent jump in mortgage rates to a high not seen since last summer left application activity overall largely flat last week, with the exception of a slight increase in the purchase market.

Total applications inched up a scant 0.5% compared to the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Apps taken out for refinances rose just 0.1% and seasonally-adjusted purchase apps jumped 2% during the week ending Feb. 26.

The minor uptick in purchase apps may reflect a recent runup in rate-indicative 10-year Treasury yields. The 10-year started 2021 near 0.9% but has risen, and last week it peaked at around 1.5% before subsiding. At day-end Tuesday, the 10-year was just above 1.4%

“There was quite a move in the 10-year,” said Michael Franco, CEO of SitusAMC. “It could run back down, but given the additional stimulus that’s likely to come out, the infrastructure bills and the concerns in the bond market about all that, I think it might be a little more stickier now.”

Sometimes refinancing actually gets a lift when rates rise as it spurs some borrowers to act out of fear of further increases, but in the long run a rate increase typically leads to diminished activity. The refi share in the market fell to 67.5% from 68.5% the week ending Feb. 19.

Homebuyers tend to increase as a share of the market when rates rise, and they also experienced a seasonal lift last week.

“Purchase applications increased, with a rise in government applications – likely first-time buyers – pulling down the average loan size for the first time in six weeks, “ said Joel Kan, the MBA’s associate vice president of ecoto nomic and industry forecasting, in a press release.

Overall, the share of loans in the government market increased as follows: Federal Housing Administration loans rose to 12.1% from 11.2%, products guaranteed by the Department of Veterans Affairs increased to 12.3% from 11.9%, and U.S. Department of Agriculture mortgages inched up to 0.4% from 0.3%

The average overall loan size was $336,200, down from $344,800 the previous week. The average purchase loan size was $412,300 and the average refinance loan size was $299,600, down from $418,000 and $311,100 the previous week, respectively.

The average government loan size was $262,100, almost matching the previous week’s $262,300.