Although ratings agencies have imposed tougher standards for the top-rated tranches of commercial mortgage-backed securities, it hasn't led to greater issuance of subordinated tranches.
In a report published today by JPMorgan, analysts said its forecast of $30 billion to $35 billion of CMBS issuance for 2012 would corresponds to roughly $800 million in market value of noninvestment-grade bonds. According to Standard & Poor's, during the 2006-2007 peak of the CMBS market there were about a dozen B-piece players that bought more than $5 billion worth of the bonds.
So while investors are concerned that B-piece buyer capacity could pose significant constraints on issuance going forward, JP Morgan analysts believe that the projected volume in non-investment grade paper this year, should be a manageable sum for "large institutional investors, which have been raising real estate and mezzanine debt funds."
