Home price growth slows but should keep rising in 2024

The Federal Housing Finance Agency's Home Price Index increased in October from September, but at a more modest pace than what the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data showed.

This data also highlighted some profound regional variations during the month.

"U.S. house price gains remained strong over the last 12 months." said Nataliya Polkovnichenko, supervisory economist in FHFA's Division of Research and Statistics. "On a monthly basis, price appreciation moderated in October, with four divisions exhibiting slowdowns from the previous month."

This index increased 0.3% month-to-month and by 6.3% versus October 2022, the FHFA reported. 

Between August and September it grew by a revised 0.7%. The end-of-third quarter release is used by the FHFA to set the conforming loan limits for the following year.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index had a 0.6% seasonally adjusted change versus the prior month; and on an annual basis, the change in this index was 4.8%.

However, prices in New England were down by 0.3% compared with September after rising by 1.5%, the most in the nation, between August and September, FHFA reported. Prices in the  Mountain states fell 0.2% in October, whereas they rose by 0.8% for September.

Price growth was flat in the West South Central region, versus a 0.9% increase the prior month. And while prices were also unchanged in the Pacific region, that was an improvement over the -0.2% between August and September.

The largest percentage growth occurred in the Middle Atlantic region at 1.1% and the East South Central region at 1%.

On an annual basis, the Middle Atlantic states increased 9.9%. New England, even with the month-to-month loss, was up by 9.7% and the East North Central region grew by 9.1%.

CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp noted the CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller index increased by 7% since the beginning of 2023, and was now 1% higher than its 2022 peak.

"The 2023 housing market closed on a considerably lighter note than expected only one month ago," Hepp said in a statement. "With mortgage rates dropping, demand for homes in early 2024 is likely to be strong and will again put pressure on prices, similar to trends observed in early 2023."

Hepp is predicting home price appreciation will increase this winter before slowing again. "Still, most markets will continue to reach new home price highs over the course of 2024," she continued.