Mortgage bond investors have little to fear from falling energy prices, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
The overall amount of collateral that is located in regions heavily dependent on the oil and gas industry Dallas, Denver, Houston and North Dakota - is limited, according to research the bank published Friday. In aggregate, it represents about 8% of the aggregate assets in conduit deals printed since the financial crisis. Deals completed in 2011 have the biggest overall exposure, at 9.4%, while the 2013 vintage is the least exposed, at 7.4%.
But even these figures probably overstate the potential impact of weak energy prices, since not all properties in these regions are directly dependent on the energy industry. On average 20% of the exposure is to multifamily properties, which BAML expects to perform well due to changing demographics, restrictive residential lending and decreased affordability. Office buildings, which account for an average of 34% of exposure to these regions, may be somewhat insulated to the extent that they have a cross-section of tenants.
While aggregate exposure is limited, it can be fairly concentrated in individual deals. Among those with the most exposure to energy dependent regions are MSC 2011-C2, at 22.8%; CFCRE 2011-C1, at 19%; JPMCC 2012-C8, at 20.1%; JPMCC 2013-LC11, at 22.4%;WFRBS 2013-C11, at 21.7%; and JPMBB 2014-C25, at 21.5%.
BAML published the data in response to queries from clients who invest in the asset class.