The outlook for the securitization market in 2009 is bleak. Problems related to ABS are manifold and a recovery of the securitization market is not yet in sight. On the one hand, the future prospects of the securitization business highly depend on a stabilization of the financial industry overall. On the other hand, the credit cycle downturn will clearly test the solidity of European structured finance notes. Uncertainties related to ABS are high. An apparent example for the current market dislocation is the CLO sector - European leveraged loan CLOs are on the radar screens as undercollateralization is imminent.
The European ABS market has seized up. This is mainly due to three reasons: a) the fundamental deterioration of assets, originators and investors, b) the ongoing secondary market dislocation and persisting imbalance in terms of demand and supply, which is impacting spreads and c) uncertainty related to the rapidly changing rules of the ABS game.