Treasurys

Focus is now on Tuesday's inflation data for any signs of a pickup in price pressures. The report will be the first to show tariff-related costs.

The declines on Thursday pushed two- to 10-year yields higher by at least 10 basis points on the day after President Donald Trump urged people to buy stocks based on the latest trade developments.

With the central bank expected to keep its benchmark rate steady at 4.25%-4.50% on Wednesday, traders will be scrutinizing comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The pace of hiring drove traders to dial back rate-cut bets that had steadily mounted as Trump's trade war unleashed havoc in financial markets and sowed fears of a US recession.

The selling comes after overseas investors made record purchases of US corporate debt in 2024. Official data shows the demand slowing in February.

As President Donald Trump approaches his 100th day in office, he has generated a growing list of unknowns, forcing traders to focus on a broad array of issues beyond just the likely path of interest rates.

It marked another day of gains in the $29 trillion Treasury market, which has swung throughout April on President Donald Trump's evolving trade policies and uncertainty about the Fed's path.

Scrutiny will be particularly strong on the results of the $70 billion five-year auction on Wednesday because over 60% of foreigners' holdings are concentrated at that maturity or less.

The outperformance of local-currency debt has led to an unusual situation where the historically riskier bonds are trading at lower yields than those denominated in the dollar — traditionally the world's main haven asset.

US bonds have been whipsawed this month as President Donald Trump's move to impose global tariffs raised threats to the economy, undermining Treasuries' reputation as the world's safest asset.

The rebound in bonds eased concerns that built last week, when a steady rise in yields threatened to deal the US economy another hit by pushing up the cost of all kinds of loans.

Bessent reiterated his interpretation of the decline being mainly a product of deleveraging, saying he had no evidence that sovereigns were behind the drop.

Investor confidence in US bonds can no longer be taken for granted — not after a years-long borrowing binge, not with a president hell-bent on rewriting the rules at home and abroad and antagonizing many of the country's biggest creditors.

The yield on 30-year Treasuries briefly pushed over 5% in Asia and the pressure seeped into other markets, with yields rising sharply in Australia, the UK and in the developing world.

It's bringing back memories of the basis-trade unwinds at the onset of the pandemic — when widespread deleveraging sparked blowups of the popular hedge fund strategy that sent bonds tumbling.

In Germany, the 10-year bund at 2.66% reflects the prospect of a flood of bond issuance as the government ramps up defense spending.

The bid for havens also saw traders boosting bets on Fed interest-rate cuts, fully pricing in a quarter-point move by June.

The ceiling kicked back in at the start of the year, since when the Treasury has been using special accounting maneuvers to make good on all obligations on time.

Leading up to President Donald Trump's April 2 deadline on levies, the options traders prefer to own exposure to US government debt due in five years.

A rise in U.S. Treasury yields from very low levels in 2020, has resulted in diminished debt affordability, with interest payments-to-revenue hitting about 30% by 2035.