Underwriting

The findings from Standard & Poor's show little impact from the Federal Housing Finance Agency's proposal regarding what information is required to underwrite a conforming mortgage.

Weaker economic conditions, rising interest rates and expected changes in investment returns drove the reduced expectations, the Mortgage Bankers Association said.

But with rates turning back up this past week, activity could fall in February, Black Knight Optimal Blue said.

However, a tiered pricing system will limit an inflation-driven increase to under 10% for a small group of originators.

The change, effective Dec. 21, is being put into place two years after it was first proposed.

The development, touted as an industry-first, is the latest move by the government-sponsored enterprises to expand housing opportunities for first-time and underserved homebuyers.

Rate and term refinance activity has practically disappeared compared with 12 months ago, and volume for the less rate sensitive cash-out product is much lower.

Historically tight underwriting reinforced by regulation and third-party reviews could be buffers, so long as manufacturing standards for production and servicing hold up as residential mortgage companies downsize, according to KBRA.

Even though a Compass Point report states the pair have validated the credit scoring model and could implement it in the first quarter of 2023, interested parties would not verify it.

Delinquencies are likely to rise if both interest rates and inflation continue their upward movements, a DBRS Morningstar report said.