Monetary policy

Consumer spending and exports fell slightly in the latest estimate, leading to a downward revision. Imports, which dragged down overall output during the first three months of the year, also came in smaller.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified in the House Tuesday on the heels of yet another pointed social media post from President Donald Trump. But House Republicans largely avoided landing political blows against the central bank chair.

The government measure of inflation for May ticked up modestly, adding to the signals that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to move on interest rates when it meets next month.

The U.S. economy added 139,000 jobs, a healthy clip that counters the president's calls for a rate cut to bolster the labor market.

Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said changes to the Federal Open Market Committee's quarterly economic projections could lead to clearer communication with markets and market participants.

The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation moved closer to the 2% target last month, but the impact of tariffs remains to be seen.

The Federal Reserve chair said he made no commitments on the central bank's next monetary policy adjustment, only that the decision would be made based on incoming data.

Price growth continued to trend toward the Federal Reserve's 2% target, but not enough to spur action from the central bank.

Federal Reserve Gov. Michael Barr said global supply chain disruptions and inflation caused by tariffs could weigh heaviest on small businesses, especially those with little access to credit.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell declined to say whether he would depart the central bank after his chairmanship ends next year, as is typical with Fed chairs who are not reappointed. He also pushed back on criticism from one potential replacement.

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation reading fell in March, but the positive reading came before new trade policies hit the economy.

Federal Reserve Gov. Adriana Kugler said tighter monetary policy has proved to be less impactful on nonbank lenders during the post-pandemic era.

Federal Reserve officials want to see how exactly new trade policies impact the U.S. economy before adjusting interest rates. Markets and monetarists have different ideas about what that might look like.

The central bank wants to let Trump's policies play out across the economy before deciding which way to move interest rates, and it's too soon to know what the impacts will be, the Federal Reserve chair said.

The Federal Reserve governor said it is healthy to examine the regulatory architecture, but stressed the importance of the central bank having insight into the banking system.

After the Federal Reserve moved to slow the pace of quantitative tightening, the Fed chair floated the idea of continuing to allow mortgage-backed securities to roll off its books even after the central bank has met its monetary policy objectives in reducing its balance sheet.

A March 2025 survey by the National Association for Business Economics shows growing inflation concerns — and a diminishing chance of rate cuts — in 2025, but also optimism about avoiding a recession.

Notably, Trump described the January decision to hold rates steady – which looks set to be the Fed's stance for some time — as "the right thing to do."

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation index showed little progress toward its target of 2%, increasing the likelihood of a prolonged rate pause.

The president's rough-and-tumble trade negotiations have throttled financial markets, causing investors to flock to the safety of dollars and Treasuries. But some economists say this style of policymaking could have hurt the U.S.'s safe haven status in the long run.