Investments

US bonds have been whipsawed this month as President Donald Trump's move to impose global tariffs raised threats to the economy, undermining Treasuries' reputation as the world's safest asset.

The rebound in bonds eased concerns that built last week, when a steady rise in yields threatened to deal the US economy another hit by pushing up the cost of all kinds of loans.

Bessent reiterated his interpretation of the decline being mainly a product of deleveraging, saying he had no evidence that sovereigns were behind the drop.

Investor confidence in US bonds can no longer be taken for granted — not after a years-long borrowing binge, not with a president hell-bent on rewriting the rules at home and abroad and antagonizing many of the country's biggest creditors.

Pres. Trump's decision to pause most of the tariffs has sparked a rally in the stock market, but the 10-year yield, while off of its peak, remains higher.

The yield on 30-year Treasuries briefly pushed over 5% in Asia and the pressure seeped into other markets, with yields rising sharply in Australia, the UK and in the developing world.

It's bringing back memories of the basis-trade unwinds at the onset of the pandemic — when widespread deleveraging sparked blowups of the popular hedge fund strategy that sent bonds tumbling.

In Germany, the 10-year bund at 2.66% reflects the prospect of a flood of bond issuance as the government ramps up defense spending.

The bid for havens also saw traders boosting bets on Fed interest-rate cuts, fully pricing in a quarter-point move by June.

The underlying prime mortgages have an average balance of $358,024, a weighted average (WA) original FICO score of 776, an original cumulative loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 73.6%.

The ceiling kicked back in at the start of the year, since when the Treasury has been using special accounting maneuvers to make good on all obligations on time.

For the first time in a decade, the metric also rose in the nine months to Dec. 31 across all segments — including equities, macro and spread products.

Interest in CLO ETFs, an asset class that's only been around since 2018, is picking up, with the number of funds doubling since August to a total of 24.

Leading up to President Donald Trump's April 2 deadline on levies, the options traders prefer to own exposure to US government debt due in five years.

A rise in U.S. Treasury yields from very low levels in 2020, has resulted in diminished debt affordability, with interest payments-to-revenue hitting about 30% by 2035.

The bonds are tied to rights to collect mortgage payments, known as mortgage servicing rights, and it's only the second such deal that's non-recourse.

For bond investors who'd been piling into Treasuries over recent weeks, Wednesday's Fed policy announcement offered vindication.

Portfolio managers should consider choosing CLOs and ABS over corporate credit and agency MBS over Treasuries in 2025, says asset manager Janus Henderson.

Money-market funds with cash to invest are doing more repo — extending overnight credit to owners of Treasuries, causing the rates on the loans to decline.

Bankers' surveys of commercial clients have found that corporate decision-makers are less concerned about adverse tariff effects than nervous investors.