Fixed income

The strategy of loading up on government bonds this year in a bold bet that would atone for the punishing losses suffered in 2022 is misfiring once again.

The surprisingly resilient US economy, ballooning debt and deficits, and escalating concerns that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates high are driving yields on the longest-dated Treasuries back to the highest levels in over a decade.

The negative return, though not the first this year, signifies that the interest income the assets throw off is more than offset by the price declines associated with rising yields.

The latest offering will get Citadel Securities closer to its long-held ambition to become a primary dealer — a designation the Federal Reserve typically bestows only to firms active across all types of Treasury securities.

The yield on 30-year securities has climbed almost 25 basis points over the past three sessions, returning it to levels last seen in mid-November when inflation was still above 7%, more than double the current rate.

The bump in issuance showcases the rising borrowing needs that contributed to Tuesday's decision by Fitch Ratings to lower the sovereign U.S. credit rating by one level, to AA+.

The mortgage company was able to move a lot closer to its goal to become a $1 trillion servicer with the expiration of the final tender offer and closing of the deal.

Wednesday's announcement will likely also see debt managers hoist regular auction sizes for securities across the yield curve — with potential exceptions or smaller bumps for notes less in demand.

One asset manager recalled the prelude to the global financial crisis and the 2001 dot-com bust, when companies that loaded up on debt when costs were low got hit with a steep bill years later.

The bond market's reenergized bulls may want to dial down their excitement, because their fortunes hinge on whether an abstract, almost elusive number, is as low as they assume.