Economy

The government-sponsored enterprise only tweaked the two-year mortgage origination forecast, with a $6 billion reduction for 2023, but an increase of $7 billion for 2024.

Jobs numbers, inflation data and the continued debate over raising the debt ceiling are factors applying upward pressure.

The legislative proposals backed by Republican members of congress seek to undo the latest cross-subsidized adjustments to loan fees that two large government-related mortgage investors charge.

Stronger than expected demand and home prices drove the latest forecast.

Economists lowered their projections for the consumer price index as well as the personal consumption expenditures price index for every quarter through the first half of 2024, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey.

Banks could be in for a long, slow trickle of bank failures and consolidation in the coming months and years, particularly if inflation persists and interest rates keep rising. A downturn in commercial real estate could add to banks' problems.

As FDIC seeks a buyer for the remaining assets left after its sale of most of Signature Bank to Flagstar Bank, the agency has announced $60 billion in deposits — including some New York City commercial real-estate loans — will be on the market by this summer.

However, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield pushed back up 15 basis points from a week ago as the markets settle following the recent bank failures.

The year-over-year drop in January stemmed primarily from loans where a payment had not been made in at least 120 days but shorter-term arrears were higher during the same period.

The economic situation is more like what happened during the mid-'80s thrift crisis than the 2008 downturn, said Chief Economist Doug Duncan.