Credit quality

The subprime lender cited low odds that Washington will deliver further economic relief, and the fact that $1.5 billion of loans whose deferral period expired are now more than 30 days behind.

Credit portfolio manager’s outlook on corporate borrower defaults and spreads on their loans, while still gloomy, has improved somewhat as the pandemic continues.

Commercial real estate loans are vulnerable as financial assistance for tenants winds down and might not be fully renewed. Late rent payments could rise, leading lenders to press landlords to pay up.

More consumer and commercial borrowers are paying their loans, increasing the likelihood that charge-offs will be manageable for banks despite the ongoing pandemic.

Conditions have improved for the first time since November.

Community bank earnings are usually easy to understand, but loan deferrals and modifications as well as the complexities of the Paycheck Protection Program are skewing financial statements.

Bankers had asserted in April that they could handle a slump in oil prices tied to the coronavirus pandemic. Continued volatility, combined with declining collateral values and a rise in bankruptcies for exploration companies, is denting their confidence.

As revenue-starved retailers fall further behind on rent payments, landlords' cash flow will be strained, and defaults on commercial real estate loans could rise.

The economic contraction caused by the coronavirus pandemic has been worse than the Wall Street firm had modeled two months ago, its president John Waldron said Wednesday.

Lenders that scrambled to grant forbearance as the coronavirus pandemic took hold are unsure about the extent of potential losses.