The blockbuster merger proposal will be reviewed at a time when the Biden administration is expressing skepticism about consolidation. Its analysis will have to account for markets dominated by both big banks and the likes of Visa and Mastercard.

The median interest rate that large credit card issuers charged consumers with good credit in the first half of 2023 was 28.2%, compared with 18.15% at smaller banks and credit unions, according to a study by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which is on a campaign against excessive fees.

The stable outlook is an indication that — at least for some lenders — the much-feared cycle of cardholders defaulting on their obligations in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic may not turn out to be so bad.

The collateral has a high principal payment rate, 63.1%, for the eleven months ended November 2023. It also had payment rates of 66.7% and 59.0% for the twelve-month averages for 2022 and 2021, respectively.

The AAA ratings also stem from a 5.5% base-case loss rate, a 22.5% base-case payment rate, a 15.0% base-case yield, and a 3.0% purchase rate assumption.

The A1 and A2 notes have a revolving period during which investors will receive fixed-rate and floating-rate payments, respectively.

The collateral pool had an average account balance of $1,620, lower than that of credit card securitization trusts that the Big Six banks sponsor, and the ABS notes benefit a 26% subordination level.

As U.S. credit card balances continue to march above $1 trillion, the number of newly delinquent credit card users now exceeds the pre-pandemic average and millennials and those with student or auto loans are driving the increase in past-due payments, the New York Fed said.

On average the receivables have a balance of $971, a WA average percentage rate of 32.88%, and a WA age of 24 months. Also, cardholders might pay an annual membership of up to $75.

Consumer ABS adapts to an environment where total U.S. household debt reaches a record high of $17.06 trillion, while observers say credit performances could reach pre-pandemic levels by 2024.

Total credit enhancement on the notes amounts to 13.50% and 7.00% on the senior and subordinate classes of notes, respectively.

Synchrony has a lower credit quality than most other bank sponsors of credit card securitization trusts in the U.S., but the average account balance is lower, too.

In the April 2023 collection period, 60 days-plus net chargeoffs and delinquencies of rose to 2.91% and 1.26%, respectively.

Rising interest rates on loans, greater borrowing and higher fees on deposit accounts all contributed to the increase. "Altogether, this paints a picture of debt that could really start to strain the checkbooks of American families," said Meghan Greene, a researcher at the nonprofit organization that authored the report.

The current deal, BA Credit Card Trust Class A, 2023-1, has 31.75% in credit support provided by the B, C and D certificates.

The deal will issue two series of notes, 2023-1 and 2023-1 from the master trust. Both series will issue classes A and B notes, but in both cases only the class A notes will be publicly offered.

Delinquency rates in credit cards, auto and personal loans are effectively back to normal after three years of unusually strong credit performance. Industry executives say the current situation is easily manageable, but they do anticipate that key metrics will continue to worsen.

The current ABS pool is more heavily weighted toward large balances. Accounts with balances of $10,000 or more account for 49.9% of the pool.

Despite some signs of weaker performance, metrics remain within manageable levels, and credit enhancement appears to be sound.

While debt outstanding and performance issues are up, and new securitizations are down as expected, only auto ABS showed early signs of issuance growth.