The credit binge has been over for years, but the real hangover starts in 2010 for banks holding a lot of commercial real estate loans.

During the easy lending days of 2005 to 2008, banks extended a wave of such loans to retailers, office building owners, hotels and other businesses. But business profits have plummeted since then, and with vacancy rates soaring and rents falling, real estate values have plunged as well. Refinancing and retiring these credits could be a nightmare; a majority of loans due through 2014 may be underwater, industry experts say, meaning more banks will be forced to restructure loans to avoid costly foreclosures.

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