Standard & Poor's estimates that CMBS issuance in the U.S. will hit $45 billion dollars in 2013.
The rating agency based its prediction on several factors such as its regression model using U.S. Treasury rates and CMBS spreads as variables; the amount of maturing loans; and the potential for portfolio and one-off deals.
Issuance could be lower if new regulations and external shocks prove to have more of an impact than is currently anticipated. But other market sources are actually predicting higher CMBS volumes than S&P, with forecasts ranging from $45 billion to $60 billion.
S&P expects commercial real estate fundamentals to improve slightly in 2013. New construction will be subdued in most markets, with McGraw-Hill Construction estimating a 6% rise next year.