Standard & Poor’s today cut its projection of U.S. CMBS issuance in 2012 to $35 billion from $45 billion. That would translate to flat growth from this year’s estimate. The agency reduced its forecast thanks to three consecutive months of rising spreads, an uncertain economic outlook and a slowdown in origination by lenders.
“We base our estimate on a regression of issuance volume on CMBS spreads and interest rates, with qualitative adjustments for factors such as maturing loans and portfolio sales,” the agency said in a release. Some $57 billion of CMBS matures in 2012, according to the agency.
S&P reiterated prior predictions that CMBS deals next year could follow in the wake of recent large portfolio sales of real estate and loans that are both performing and non-performing.
