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Mortgage Rates Creep Higher

The 30-year averaging 5.03% with an average 0.7 points, and 15-year rates at 4.46%, according to Freddie Mac.

Adjustable rate mortgages also recorded limited increases of two basis points for 5/1 hybrid ARMs to 4.42%, while one-year ARMs increased to 4.57% from 4.54%.

While mortgage rates remain historically attractive, application activity responsiveness above 5% has been particularly limited recently. For example, for the week ending Oct. 23, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported the Refinance Index dropped 16% to 2353 as mortgage rates increased to 5% from 4.92%. 

At similar rates at the start of the year, the Refinance Index reached into the 6000+ to 7000+ range.

The limited response is due, in part, to a smaller percentage of the universe that has an incentive compared to earlier this year as many higher coupons took advantage of the opportunity to refinance.

Barclays Capital analysts estimated around 60% of the universe is refinanceable at current mortgage rates versus 80% a year ago.

The tight underwriting standards also has limited the share of refinanceable borrowers to the best credits, they said, which has contributed to burnout among lower credits. 

For refinance activity to pick up to the 6000+ levels seen in the spring, Barclays analysts think mortgage rates need to be around 35 basis points lower than the April lows.

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