The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will update its origination forecast for 2010 at next week's annual convention but isn't giving any hints on whether the forecast will change much.
MBA chief economist Jay Brinkmann told National Mortgage News that he is weighing such key factors as the possibility that the government might extend the first-time homebuyer tax credit and what effect the Federal Reserve's plan to reduce its mortgage purchases will have on the market.
In its latest forecast, MBA estimates $1.62 trillion in new single-family originations for next year, which is what the industry funded in 2008, the year the subprime sector collapsed and credit markets ground to a halt.
The forecast is set for next Wednesday at the trade group's annual convention in San Diego.
According to figures compiled by National Mortgage News and its Quarterly Data Report product, mortgage bankers funded $1.06 trillion during the first half of this year and could wind up funding $2 trillion by the time 2009 ends. MBA's forecast for this year is $1.89 trillion.