Mortgage originations could fall dramatically next year by one-third, even as purchase-money lending increases, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said at its annual convention in Atlanta.

Driven by a decline in refinancings, the MBA is projecting total originations to dip under $1 trillion in 2011. By the time the numbers are tabulated for 2010, the group expects loan production to hit the $1.4 trillion level this year.

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